Construction industry employment declined by 29,000 in March, according to analysis from Associated Builders and Contractors of data released recently by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonresidential construction employment declined by 24,600 in March.

All three nonresidential segments registered job losses (see Table), with the largest decrease experienced in nonresidential building (-10,700) followed closely by heavy and civil engineering (-10,200). Nonresidential specialty trade lost 3,700 jobs on net. The construction unemployment rate was 6.9% in March, up 1.7 percentage points from the same time one year ago. Unemployment across all industries rose from 3.5% in February to 4.4% last month, a direct result of the global pandemic.

“So ends the lengthiest expansion in American economic history,” says ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. “The expansion was associated with dramatic asset price increases, multi-decade lows in unemployment, persistently low costs of capital and a thriving U.S. nonresidential construction sector. While the March jobs report is horrific, ending a 113-month streak of employment gains, it is clear that employment reports in future months are likely to be even worse.”

What remains unclear, explains Basu, is the extent to which estimated construction employment declines are due to mandated suspension of projects in Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, California and elsewhere and how much stem from the emergence of recessionary forces. “Generally, nonresidential construction is one of the last segments of the economy to enter recession as contractors continue to work down their collective backlog, which stood at 8.9 months in ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator,” he says. “The need for social distancing renders that statistic less pertinent, meaning that nonresidential construction is susceptible to large-scale job losses immediately.”

Although the recently passed stimulus package will help support the payments side of the economy, recovery will “remain elusive until the COVID-19-engendered crisis is behind us,” notes Basu. “While that is obvious, many people are still looking to compare the current crisis to other episodes in American history, including the Great Recession. As a practical matter, this period defies comparison, and must be understood on its own. Based on what is known, the downturn will be vicious. The good news is that this crisis may finally induce policymakers to fashion and implement a long-awaited infrastructure stimulus package.”