According to a recent analysis by GTM Research, the tariffs on imported solar cells and modules set forth by the Trump administration will result in an 11% decrease in U.S. solar photovoltaic (PV) installations over the next five years. This represents a reduction of 7.6 GW of installed solar PV capacity between 2018 and 2022.
GTM Research notes that the tariffs result in an average $0.10/W increase in Year 1 prices to modules, stepping down to a $0.04/W premium by Year 4.
According to the analysis, the utility-scale solar segment will be more heavily affected than the residential and commercial solar segments, taking 65% of the expected 7.6 GW of reductions over the next five years.
Projects under construction or with modules already in inventory will damper the effect on 2018 installations, with the effect of tariffs hitting the downstream market more heavily in 2019.
The analysis also shows that new and emerging state markets are disproportionately affected, with southern states like Texas, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina among the most impacted by the tariffs.
“Trump's decision on solar tariffs matches closely to recommendations from the U.S. International Trade Commission,” said MJ Shiao, head of Americas at GTM Research. “The overall effect is a meaningful but not destructive reduction to expected solar installations in concert with modest improvements to a still challenging environment for domestic solar cell and module manufacturing.”