As we quickly turn the final pages in the book that will mark the end of 2019’s story, it’s only natural to think about what the future may hold for each of us personally and professionally. Every year, EC&M tries to answer the most pressing questions so many of our readers ask when it comes to what lies ahead for the construction industry: Which market segments are poised for the most significant growth; what trends and technologies may affect the way in which electrical professionals do business; how will the ongoing skilled labor shortage play out? Although many factors affected our business in either a positive or negative way this year, one thing is certain — 2019 will go down in the history books. Only July 1, 2019, the current economic expansion of 121 months, which began roughly a decade ago after the end of the Great Recession, became the longest-running expansion period in U.S. history, beating the previous 120-month record that started in March 1991 and ended in March 2001 when the dotcom bubble burst.

Although the expansion has been slow at times, it has produced growth nonetheless. The real question most of us want to know — and one we continue to get mixed reviews on from economists —  is how long can this continue? We’ve been hearing warning bells about a looming recession for years, yet most of our readers still report good times. One construction forecast that caught my eye recently comes from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and USG Corp. Its Q4 Commercial Construction Index revealed what could be seen as troubling signs for the construction industry, including record lows in three key areas (confidence in new business, revenue, and backlog). Specifically, confidence in the ability of the market to provide new business in the next 12 months dropped notably from 76 in Q3 to 72 in Q4, revenue numbers declined from 72 in Q3 to 66 in Q4, and the ratio average current to ideal backlog dropped from 82 in Q3 to 76 this quarter.

Another trusted source is Dodge Data & Analytics, which recently unveiled the “2020 Dodge Construction Outlook” at its 81st annual Outlook Executive Conference, which was held in Chicago. In this report, analysts predict that total U.S. construction starts will slip to $776 billion in 2020, a decline of 4% from the 2019 estimated level of activity. “The recovery in construction starts that began during 2010 in the aftermath of the Great Recession is coming to an end,” stated Richard Branch, chief economist for Dodge Data & Analytics, in the press release announcing the outlook results. “Easing economic growth driven by mounting trade tensions and lack of skilled labor will lead to a broad-based, but orderly pullback in construction starts in 2020. After increasing 3% in 2018, construction starts dipped an estimated 1% in 2019 and will fall 4% in 2020.” He went on to assert that next year will not be a repeat of the Great Recession. “Economic growth is slowing but is not anticipated to contract next year,” he said. “Construction starts, therefore, will decline but the level of activity will remain close to recent highs.”

Jim Lucy, content director of EC&M’s sister publication, Electrical Wholesaling magazine, a veteran journalist who has covered the electrical industry for the last 37 years, attended the Dodge conference in Chicago in late October. Read about his findings in this month’s cover story, starting on page 10. In this special report, Jim offers up unique insight into the state of the industry, what factors may influence a slowdown next year, and areas in which pockets of growth exist. We are so fortunate to have our own in-house market expert on staff and value his exclusive take on this important subject.