We know the old saying all too well: You’re either a glass half full or glass half empty type of person. It’s simple psychology, right? The optimist takes one look at the water level and is immediately relieved to see there’s still a little liquid left to drink. The pessimist perceives the exact same situation as alarming because that amount of water surely won’t last very long. I’ve always found this expression to be pretty accurate when it comes to most peoples’ views of the world. However, I’m not sure this theory applies to the economy. While researching for this month’s viewpoint to help make some sense out of this year’s Top 40 Electrical Design Firms survey results, I found an abundance of conflicting information.

Is a recession inevitable, given the ramifications of the recent coronavirus pandemic on the U.S. economy? Are we already in a recession? Many economists say yes; some say no. Still others say yes and no. Some characterize it as a temporary downturn; others have labeled it as the new Great Depression. According to a report by Bloomberg Economics in April, analysts put the chance of recession within the next 12 months at 100%! Another brief by CNBC released the same month characterized the U.S. economy as being in a “medically induced coma” but not necessarily heading for a depression. With all of the underlying factors in play, it’s tough to get a straight answer. Press releases covering the construction market have also produced a mixed bag of forecasts. Here is a sampling of some headlines from our website as of press time that deliver both good and bad news.

• Construction employment declined in the District of Columbia and every state except South Dakota in April, according to analysis by the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC) of government data. At the same time, the association released a survey that found rising project cancellations were forcing many firms to furlough or terminate employees even as federal relief measures helped avoid further job losses.

• In May, the construction industry added 464,000 net new jobs, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) analysis. May represented the largest monthly increase in construction jobs since the government began tracking employment in 1939.

• Despite the fact that construction employment rebounded in May, the total remained 596,000 below the latest peak in February, and the industry’s 12.7% unemployment rate was the highest for May since 2012, according to AGC.

• ABC recently reported that its Construction Backlog Indicator rose to 7.9 months in May, an increase of less than 0.1 months from April’s reading. Based on its most recent survey (conducted from May 20 to June 3), results indicate that contractor confidence continues to rebound from the historically low levels observed in the March survey.

Freelance Writer Tom Zind interprets the results of EC&M’s 2020 Top 40 Electrical Design Firms survey in the special report starting on page 24. As a group, this year’s Top 40 reported a collective revenue number of $2.195 billion (based on 2019 numbers), a 6% drop from last year’s total of $2.34 billion (posted in 2018). Although this represents the first overall decline since EC&M started breaking out total revenue by electrical design services in 2012, there are plenty of bright spots to highlight. Read through the analysis, and learn how Top 40 firms are combating the effects of the coronavirus, securing new work, shifting focus to certain niche markets, using virtual technologies to streamline operations, and navigating the new normal. It all depends on how you look at that glass, right? In reality, time will tell which group ultimately gets it right — or if the truth ends up falling somewhere in the middle of both perspectives.